UPDATE 1:30PM: New NOAA numbers project REDUCED probabilities, table updated:
According to raw data from the National Hurricane Center, the probability that NYC will suffer sustained high winds has increased significantly
I had yesterday's numbers saved on my web cache from yesterday. Here they are compared with this morning's numbers (reports 26 and 28 respectively):
| City | KT | SAT 0200-1400 | SAT 1400-SUN 0200 | SUN 0200-1400 | SUN 1400-MON 0200 | MON 0200 - TUE 0200 | TUE 0200-WED 0200 | WED 0600 - THU 0600 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYC | 34 | 1( 1) | 23(24) | 44(68) | 1(69) | X(69) | X(69) | ||
| NYC | 50 | X( X) | 2( 2) | 27(29) | X(29) | X(29) | X(29) | ||
| NYC | 64 | X( X) | X( X) | 5( 5) | X( 5) | X( 5) | X( 5) | ||
| New proj: | |||||||||
| NYC | 34 | 1 | 35(36) | 47(83) | X(83) | X(83) | X(83) | X(83) | |
| NYC | 50 | X | 3( 3) | 41(44) | X(44) | X(44) | X(44) | X(44) | |
| NYC | 64 | X | X( X) | 10(10) | X(10) | X(10) | X(10) | X(10) | |
| NEWER proj (#29): | |||||||||
| NYC | 34 | 10 | 59(69) | 5(74) | X(74) | X(74) | X(74) | X(74) | |
| NYC | 50 | X | 30(30) | 3(33) | X(33) | X(33) | X(33) | X(33) | |
| NYC | 64 | X | 5( 5) | 1( 6) | X( 6) | X( 6) | X( 6) | X( 6) |
The KT values are sustained winds (1 minute or longer) measurements. They translate to:
| 34 | 39mph |
| 50 | 58mph |
| 64 | 74mph |
The number in the parentheses is the projected cumulative chance that NYC experiences those wind speeds. The number outside the parentheses are the chance that those wind speeds will occur in the given time period.
How bad are those wind speeds for New York? Nate Silver of the New York Times has a great article and chart showing the projected damage. Summary: It's not good, at all:
Nate Silver Hurricane Irene damage chart
The NYTimes is keeping a good up-to-date blog of the latest Irene news.
Here's the current NOAA raw data for all the cities (next time around, I'll just make a web app to translate this mess):
000
FONT14 KNHC 271449
PWSAT4
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC SAT AUG 27 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 4 4 10 25 30 31
TROP DEPRESSION 3 19 7 26 31 29 28
TROPICAL STORM 41 56 65 53 41 38 38
HURRICANE 56 21 24 12 3 4 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 52 18 21 10 3 3 3
HUR CAT 2 4 2 3 2 X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 12(12) 18(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 22(22) 16(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 41(41) 12(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 62(63) 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X 5( 5) 67(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CONCORD NH 34 X 9( 9) 68(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BOSTON MA 34 X 18(18) 54(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 19(19) 34(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 20(20) 26(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 30(30) 39(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HARTFORD CT 34 2 39(41) 34(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
HARTFORD CT 50 X 6( 6) 29(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 34 4 42(46) 23(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 11(11) 23(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW YORK CITY 34 10 59(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X 30(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEWARK NJ 34 9 53(62) 5(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
NEWARK NJ 50 X 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
NEWARK NJ 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 15 45(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
TRENTON NJ 50 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
TRENTON NJ 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 44 38(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 1 42(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BALTIMORE MD 34 26 9(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
DOVER DE 34 54 20(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
DOVER DE 50 2 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
DOVER DE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 35 10(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
WASHINGTON DC 34 26 7(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 83 9(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 43 26(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
RICHMOND VA 34 57 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK NAS 50 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
NORFOLK NAS 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK VA 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
NORFOLK VA 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GREENSBORO NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN