New Hurricane Irene data predicts increased chance of high speed winds

UPDATE 1:30PM: New NOAA numbers project REDUCED probabilities, table updated:

According to raw data from the National Hurricane Center, the probability that NYC will suffer sustained high winds has increased significantly

I had yesterday's numbers saved on my web cache from yesterday. Here they are compared with this morning's numbers (reports 26 and 28 respectively):

CityKTSAT 0200-1400SAT 1400-SUN 0200SUN 0200-1400SUN 1400-MON 0200MON 0200 - TUE 0200TUE 0200-WED 0200WED 0600 - THU 0600
NYC341( 1)23(24)44(68)1(69)X(69)X(69)
NYC50X( X)2( 2)27(29)X(29)X(29)X(29)
NYC64X( X)X( X)5( 5)X( 5)X( 5)X( 5)
New proj:
NYC34135(36)47(83)X(83)X(83)X(83)X(83)
NYC50X3( 3)41(44)X(44)X(44)X(44)X(44)
NYC64XX( X)10(10)X(10)X(10)X(10)X(10)
NEWER proj (#29):
NYC341059(69)5(74)X(74)X(74)X(74)X(74)
NYC50X30(30)3(33)X(33)X(33)X(33)X(33)
NYC64X5( 5)1( 6)X( 6)X( 6)X( 6)X( 6)


The KT values are sustained winds (1 minute or longer) measurements. They translate to:

3439mph
5058mph
6474mph

The number in the parentheses is the projected cumulative chance that NYC experiences those wind speeds. The number outside the parentheses are the chance that those wind speeds will occur in the given time period.

How bad are those wind speeds for New York? Nate Silver of the New York Times has a great article and chart showing the projected damage. Summary: It's not good, at all:

Nate Silver Hurricane Irene damage chart

Nate Silver Hurricane Irene damage chart

The NYTimes is keeping a good up-to-date blog of the latest Irene news.

Here's the current NOAA raw data for all the cities (next time around, I'll just make a web app to translate this mess):


000
FONT14 KNHC 271449
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 27 2011                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      

VALID TIME   00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       4       4      10      25      30      31
TROP DEPRESSION  3      19       7      26      31      29      28
TROPICAL STORM  41      56      65      53      41      38      38
HURRICANE       56      21      24      12       3       4       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       52      18      21      10       3       3       3
HUR CAT 2        4       2       3       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        1       1       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    65KT    60KT    45KT    40KT    35KT    35KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)  16(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)

ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)  12(12)  18(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)  22(22)  16(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)  41(41)  12(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

AUGUSTA ME     34  X   1( 1)  62(63)   7(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)  18(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PORTLAND ME    34  X   5( 5)  67(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)  26(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CONCORD NH     34  X   9( 9)  68(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)  37(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CONCORD NH     64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BOSTON MA      34  X  18(18)  54(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)  29(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HYANNIS MA     34  X  19(19)  34(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X  20(20)  26(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X  30(30)  39(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

HARTFORD CT    34  2  39(41)  34(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   6( 6)  29(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MONTAUK POINT  34  4  42(46)  23(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X  11(11)  23(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NEW YORK CITY  34 10  59(69)   5(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X  30(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NEWARK NJ      34  9  53(62)   5(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
NEWARK NJ      50  X  21(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
NEWARK NJ      64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

TRENTON NJ     34 15  45(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
TRENTON NJ     50  X  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
TRENTON NJ     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ATLANTIC CITY  34 44  38(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  1  42(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BALTIMORE MD   34 26   9(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

DOVER DE       34 54  20(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
DOVER DE       50  2  20(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
DOVER DE       64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34 35  10(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

WASHINGTON DC  34 26   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

OCEAN CITY MD  34 83   9(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
OCEAN CITY MD  50 43  26(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  5   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

RICHMOND VA    34 57   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)

NORFOLK NAS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK NAS    50 71   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
NORFOLK NAS    64  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK VA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK VA     50 84   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
NORFOLK VA     64 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GREENSBORO NC  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

RALEIGH NC     34 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  64 14   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    


	

I'm a programmer, data journalist, and photographer in New York City. I'm the author of three in-progress books: The Bastards Books of Ruby, Photography, and Regular Expressions.